Business Activity in Dublin slows down in the second quarter of 2025.
The latest PMI survey from S&P Global, shows that business activity in Dublin’s private sector increased in the second quarter of 2025, albeit at the softest rate of expansion since late 2023. The headline rate stood at 52.2, broadly in line with the 52.6 seen in the previous quarter. Crucially this remains above the 50-point mark that denotes expansion. At 52.6 output across the rest of Ireland increased in line with that in Dublin.
The Capital’s New Orders component contracted for the first time since Q4 2023. It dropped 2.1 pp from the first quarter of the year to 49.9 indicating a marginal contraction. This ended a five-quarter sequence of expansion in new business and is most likely a reflection of the uncertainty that changing US trade policy is causing. In contrast, new orders across the Rest of Ireland expanded to 53.0, up from 52.7 last quarter.
On a more positive note, all three sectors that make up business activity, were in expansion mode in Dublin in Q2 2025. The Manufacturing sector (54.2) showed the strongest rate of growth which was particularly notable as it bounced back from a contraction of 48.9 last quarter. Both the Construction (55.8) and Service (50.3) sectors posted increases in activity but at slower rates than seen in Q1 when they were at 57.8 and 53.4 respectively. Similarly, the Rest of Ireland saw increases in activity in all sectors; Manufacturing (53.4), Service (53.0) and Construction (50.4).
Continuing the trend seen since the opening quarter of 2021, employment increased in the latest three-month period. The modest pace of job creation (51.3) was fractionally quicker than in the opening quarter of 2025 (51.2). The rise in staffing levels in Dublin was softer than in the Rest of Ireland (52.2).
Commenting on the PMI, Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
It was good to see a return to growth in manufacturing production in Dublin, which meant that all three monitored sectors contributed to the overall expansion in business activity seen in the second quarter of the year. Overall, however, the picture was quite subdued, with little movement in new orders during the quarter meaning that firms increased their output and employment only modestly. With US trade policy potentially becoming clearer soon, the Dublin private sector is at something of a crossroads as we enter the second half of the year. We will hopefully see a demand environment more conducive to growth in Q3.
Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence
