Dublin Economic Monitor

This edition of the Dublin Economic Monitor reflects on a period of yet more economic concern and looks towards a year ahead that should see inflation continue to influence prospects while loosening its grip. Although key economic indicators are indicating a sluggishness, the economy is expected to avoid recession in 2023. Consumer and business confidence, both of which have endured significant recent declines, will be watched with interest to see if the great resilience that has been evident will sustain.

In Q4 overall retail sales YoY growth rates in both Dublin as well as Ireland showed more stability than compared to the quarters immediately following the pandemic. Overall retail sales growth rates of 6% YoY for Dublin and 4% YoY for Ireland are in a range that is more typical for general retail economic activity. Some sectors, such as Entertainment, remain elevated as we continue to recover from some suppressed activity a year ago, though many sectors are showing more typical growth in the low-to-mid single digits.

Dublin firms are feeling the pinch at present as waning demand acts to limit business activity both in the capital and across the Rest of Ireland as well. Growth in the service sector was cancelled out by falling activity across manufacturing and construction in the final quarter of 2022. On a more positive note, however, firms are still taking on extra staff, perhaps hoping that any soft-patch will prove to be short-lived.