The latest Dublin Economic Monitor, published this morning by the four Dublin Local Authorities, shows that the Capital’s economy remained resilient in Q4 2025. Business activity strengthened, retail and tourism spending remained robust, and housing completions surged even as signs of moderation emerged in the labour market.
Dublin & Ireland PMI
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Dublin showed that business activity in the Capital’s private sector increased solidly during the fourth quarter of 2025. The headline Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 53.2, up from 50.8 in Q3, marking a one-year high in the pace of expansion. Importantly, the index continued to sit above the 50-point threshold, indicating that activity remains in expansion territory. Sectoral performance was mixed with the Services (55.5) and Construction (55.1) sectors both recording notable increases in output, with the former recovering from a contraction in Q3 (49.4). In contrast, the Manufacturing sector dipped to 49.4, contracting for the first time in three quarters.
Dublin Unemployment Rate
Employment amongst Dublin residents eased to 838,300 (SA) in Q4 2025, a 0.7% decline QoQ, though remaining 2.7% higher YoY (+22,400 jobs). The unemployment rate declined to 5.0% (SA), a 0.2 percentage point (pp) decrease from Q3. However, it remained 0.4pp higher YoY, reflecting some easing from the exceptionally tight conditions seen in 2024. Job vacancy data points to a similar pattern of stabilisation. The volume of Dublin job postings on the Indeed website steadied in early 2026 following the gradual easing seen through much of 2025. By early February, the job postings index stood 11pp below the February 2020 baseline, marking an improvement from the weaker readings recorded earlier in the year.
Retail Spending
According to MasterCard data retail spending in Dublin strengthened further in Q4 2025. Total expenditure increased by 2.5% QoQ and 7.9% YoY to reach a new peak index level of 156.7 (2015 = 100). Quarterly growth was broad-based across categories. Discretionary spend rose by 2.7% QoQ, while Household Goods increased by 2.4% and Entertainment spend expanded by 3.1% over the quarter. The breadth of these gains across non-essential categories points to sustained strength in discretionary and experience-led consumption. Spending by overseas visitors in Dublin maintained positive momentum in Q4 2025, with total tourist expenditure increasing by 1.6% QoQ. Annual growth was stronger, at +6.3% YoY, reflecting continued resilience in international visitor demand.
Resource Packs
Dublin House Commencements & Completions
Housing delivery in Dublin re-gained momentum in Q4 2025. The volume of completions rose sharply, up by 39.1% QoQ and by 31.4% YoY to 4,664 units (SA), to reach a new peak. Commencements also re-bounded over the quarter, rising by 134.2% QoQ to 2,162 units (non-SA), but remained 21.3% lower than a year earlier. For 2025 as a whole, almost 14,100 homes (SA) were completed, representing an 18.8% increase on 2024 and a boost for the overall housing stock in the Capital. In contrast, total commencements in 2025 (5,074 units) were substantially below the 20,712 units recorded in 2024, pointing to ongoing volatility in the development pipeline heading into 2026.
FDI Capital Investment per Capita & Average Project Value, Rolling 4 Quarters, Q4 2025
Based on a rolling 4 quarter average, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Dublin declined further in Q4 2025. Average capital investment fell to $531 million, down by 5% QoQ and by 30.2% YoY, reaching a new low for the series. Average job creation also weakened to 1,662, representing declines both QoQ (-8.5%) and YoY (-21.9%). In contrast, the average number of investment projects remained stable at 29, unchanged on both a quarterly and annual basis. This is reflective of a continued divergence between steady project numbers and a reduction in project scale. As a result, average project size declined to $18.3 million in the quarter. Despite this overall softening in investment values, Dublin continued to outperform its European peers, ranking as the leading city for FDI per capita (at $462).
The latest Dublin Economic Monitor shows that the Capital’s economy closed out 2025 on a solid footing. Business activity has strengthened, consumer and tourism spending remain healthy, and housing completions have accelerated sharply. However, the data also point to a gradual cooling in parts of the labour market and a softer FDI environment, highlighting a more balanced and sustainable phase of growth. The challenge now is to convert this resilience into longer-term momentum by maintaining competitiveness, scaling up housing delivery and supporting investment in the years ahead.
ANDREW WEBB, CHIEF ECONOMIST WITH GRANT THORNTON
The Dublin Economic Monitor is produced by Grant Thornton on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities to provide timely, reliable data and commentary on the economic landscape of the Dublin region. It covers 18 key indicators, consumer spending data from the MasterCard SpendingPulse™ and provides regular insights into different aspects of Dublin’s economy.
