The latest Dublin Economic Monitor, published this morning by the four Dublin Local Authorities, points to a steady but cooling economic environment in Q3 2025, with employment at record levels, retail spending continuing to rise, and business activity holding broadly firm, even as unemployment ticks higher and housing supply weakens.
Dublin & Ireland PMI
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Dublin showed that business activity in the Capital’s private sector continued to expand in the third quarter of 2025, albeit only marginally. The headline rate stood at 50.8, down from 52.2 in Q2, marking the weakest rate of growth since late 2022. Crucially, the index remained above the 50-point threshold that signals expansion. Sectoral performance was mixed, with Manufacturing (52.2) and Construction (50.6) both recording increases in output. In contrast, the Services sector, the biggest sector in the Capital, dipped to 49.4, entering contraction territory for the first time since early 2021.
Dublin Unemployment Rate
Employment levels across the Dublin economy continued to rise in Q3 2025, with total employment reaching 844,100 (SA), up 0.8% QoQ and 1.9% YoY. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased to 5.2% (SA), surpassing the 5% threshold for the first time since 2022. This simultaneous rise in employment and unemployment points to an expanding labour force, where growing participation is outpacing the rate of new job creation, a pattern reinforced by job-vacancy data. In October, job postings on the Indeed website, fell to their weakest level since 2021, further signalling a cooling in hiring activity across the Capital.
Retail Spending
According to MasterCard data retail spending in Dublin continued to rise in Q3 2025. Total expenditure in the Capital increased by 1.1% QoQ, reaching a new peak index value of 150.1 (2015 = 100). While prices remain elevated, continued strength in the labour market and steady income gains have also supported growth in retail spending. By category Household Goods recorded the strongest growth, rising by 1.9% QoQ and discretionary spend increased by 0.8% QoQ, signalling a modest pick-up in non-essential consumption. Retail spending by overseas visitors in Dublin increased further in Q3 2025, with total tourist expenditure rising by 0.6% QoQ. While growth was more moderate than in Q2 (+1.8%), the quarter still delivered a positive outturn.
Resource Packs
Dublin House Commencements & Completions
Residentially, Dublin’s housing supply indicators weakened sharply in Q3 2025, reflective of tighter financing conditions, rising construction costs, and regulatory changes. The volume of completions fell by 17.8% QoQ and 13.2% YoY to 3,353 units (SA). Commencements also dropped, down by 3% QoQ and a steep decline of 85% YoY to 923 units (non-SA), marking the fifth consecutive QoQ decline. Fewer than 3,000 units were commenced in the first three quarters of 2025, contrasting with 2024 when almost 18,000 units were commenced in the same period.
FDI Capital Investment per Capita & Average Project Value, Rolling 4 Quarters, Q3 2025
Based on a rolling 4 quarter average, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Dublin remained subdued in Q3 2025. Average capital investment stood at $556 million, down by 1.5% QoQ and by 35.4% YoY, marking the lowest quarterly inflow since the series began in 2019. Average job creation also softened, falling by 1.9% QoQ and by 9% YoY to 1,816. The average number of investment projects eased to 29, down slightly from 31 in Q2, but unchanged from the same period last year. Average project size declined to $19.3 million in Q3, reinforcing that although Dublin continues to attract new investments, individual project scales have become smaller. Despite this moderation, the Capital continues to outperform its European peers, ranking as the top city for FDI per capita ($483).
“In the latest Monitor, Dublin’s economy continues to show resilience, even as the pace of activity shows signs of moderating. Employment remains strong and consumers continue to spend, yet the rise in unemployment and softening vacancy levels point to a labour market that is beginning to rebalance. The sharp drop in housing commencements is a reminder that delivery challenges remain. Dublin is entering a more measured phase of expansion, where sustaining confidence will depend on steady progress in housing, infrastructure and competitiveness.”
ANDREW WEBB, CHIEF ECONOMIST WITH GRANT THORNTON
The Dublin Economic Monitor is produced by Grant Thornton on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities to provide timely, reliable data and commentary on the economic landscape of the Dublin region. It covers 18 key indicators, consumer spending data from the MasterCard SpendingPulse™ and provides regular insights into different aspects of Dublin’s economy.
